Report Card – 2014 Themes and Forecast

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Time to take a look back at the 2014 Forecast and Predictions and see how they turned out. Overall 2014 had a number of hits along with some disappointments. Let’s start with a review of the companies that seemed like they could be M&A Targets along with one to sell and see how they did.

 

2014 Picks with Performance Data
Acquired Closing Price 1/6/2014 Last Trade 12/31/2014 Percentage of Change
Blackberry BBRY No 8.01 10.98 37.08%
Fortinet FTNT No 19.24 30.66 59.36%
Game Stop* GME No 48.17 33.8 29.83%
Multi-Fineline MFLX No 13.97 11.23 -19.61%
Nuance NUAN No 15.05 14.27 -5.18%
Rackspace RAX No 36.73 46.81 27.44%
Average Gain 21.49%
*- Recommended selling or could have gone short

Highlights of 2014 – On the Money

Amazon finally getting enough criticism to cause some customers and analysts concern around a number of their strategies.

Avoiding social media stocks such as Yelp, Twitter, LinkedIn, Facebook along with Amazon which had negative comments in the forecast would have served you well as a number of them were down sharply for the year and the basket would have left you with a loss even with an amazing performance from Facebook.

-The overall portfolio did well against market averages and easily beat them with a 21.49% gain for the year.

Microsoft was a tough call as they are still struggling with handset sales but they seem to have found a winner with the Surface.

IoT was on target with a ton of interest and devices being introduced. A number of vendors are jumping in to figure out how to pull all of this data together and make it more useful.

Google Glass was welcomed to a lukewarm reception. No “killer app” and high price were just a couple of reasons why the units are not flying off shelves.

Outsourcers and Integrators Disappearing seems to be gaining momentum as a wide range of businesses were either bought, merged or closed up shop in 2014. Many researchers are hot on this trend now.

Lowlights of 2014 – Off the Mark though perhaps some just delayed

None of the M&A stocks were acquired though there was some notable interest around at least one of the candidates.

Digital wallet while getting some traction still isn’t widely accepted enough to ditch carrying credit cards and alternate payment methods. Maybe next year especially with Apple’s visibility helping.

3D Printing crimes and legal issues were not major issues in 2014

Apple did not ship a TV or a wearable though one was announced this year.

What could happen in 2015? Check out my next post coming out shortly and let me know if you agree or think I am missing something?