REVIEW OF 2013 THEMES & FORECAST

For a number of years now, I’ve tried to make some educated, annual guesstimates on what will happen in the tech world. At the end of the year, I look back to see how I fared with my predictions. This has made for good conversation with a number of people I’ve encountered, so I look forward to your feedback this year, too.

With 2013 nearly a wrap, it’s time to revisit last years’ predictions and surprises. Let’s start with a review of stocks that were mentioned as M&A targets, plus Facebook, which I forecasted to rebound.

2013 M&A Picks with Performance Data
Closing Price Last Trade or Price Percentage of
Acquired 1/8/2013 12/24/2013 Change
Adtran ADTN No 20.72 26.38 27.32%
Brocade BRCD No 5.36 8.68 61.94%
Dolby Labs DLB No 29.67 38.57 30.00%
Facebook FB No 29.06 57.96 99.45%
Fortinet FTNT No 19.09 18.9 -1.00%
Groupon GRPN No 5.2 11.84 127.69%
NetApp NTAP No 32.5 40.38 24.25%
Palo Alto PANW No 47.63 56.85 19.36%
RIM BBRY No 11.91 7.73 -35.10%
Travel Zoo TZOO No 19.68 21.82 10.87%
Yahoo YHOO No 19.66 40.85 107.78%
Average Gain 59.07%

Highlights of 2013 – On the Money

  • Though none of this portfolio of particular stocks were actually acquired in 2013, they hummed along, crushing the market averages with a greater than 59% annualized return for this chosen portfolio of stocks.
  • Facebook mounted a huge comeback and gained back the faith of many of those whom it had disappointed in 2012.
  • Marissa Mayer is on a mission and did not disappoint investors as she made huge strides at Yahoo in 2013. Can she keep it up?
  • Smartphone cameras improved greatly and were key features in many new models.
  • The Blackberry phone was not a game changer and BBRY quickly popped back up as an M&A target.
  • Cloud War is in full progress as Amazon continues to cut prices and Wall Street seems to buy the strategy damaging many competitors in the process.
  • Laws—or lack thereof—slowing cloud adoption were commonplace. Imagine the even more impressive growth the cloud would have if businesses weren’t scared of compliance, case law and spying, for example.
  • Microsoft released their new XBOX and made some positive steps on the mobile front.
  • Crowdsourcing is now seen in tons of applications and has definitely hit the mainstream.

Lowlights of 2013 – Early Though Still Possible

  • Blackberry still didn’t get a deal done. I really thought they would seal a deal in 2013 in order to escape the drama that has so publicly haunted the company, and so they can focus on product development (even if it means killing their device business).
  • Apple has blown my mind by not releasing anything worth highlighting except the iPad Air and an offering of a free OS upgrade. I really thought Apple would do something noteworthy on the mobile device or television front. It seems Samsung read Job’s comments about a smart TV and took the lead on making televisions easier to control. Tim Cook keeps teasing us that there are exciting items in the funnel and that 2014 will be a big year. Let’s see if he is right.
  • No M&A – Not a single company in the list was taken over. The value of several of these companies was evidenced by their shares rebounding greatly, but I still believe many of them cannot continue to stand alone much longer. At this point, it may take another downturn or a technological advance to get the valuations compelling enough for a deal to happen.

What could happen in 2014? Check out my upcoming blog “2014 Themes and Forecast” and let me know where we agree or disagree.