With 2015 in the books it is time to take a look at trends, technologies and products in the Technology Forecast for 2016
1 – Artificial Intelligence – will be incorporated into technology products, services and software at a rapid pace. More interesting is that the old 1950’s proclamation “Robots will soon be everywhere!” will finally begin to take place in 2016. Robots are already well accepted for basic tasks but will gain popularity as people see other uses. AI will also be used behind the scenes to reduce fraud and loan delinquencies, improve support and compliance, enhance special education, help with security and link disparate but interesting research together.
2 – Drones – which till now have primarily been targeted to consumers and known as a cool Amazon side project, will get a serious dose of commercialization in 2016 upon the FAA releasing rules for commercial flights. Consumers will also benefit from the R&D as drones get smarter with more sensors along with the ability to play interesting games.
3 – 3D Printing – goes mainstream in 2016. While investors and companies have been disappointed in the growth and profitability of companies involved in this space, much innovation continues to take place. The cost of ownership has come down and the capabilities have gone up. The Aerospace, Automotive, Energy and Medical Device industries should lead the way in leveraging 3D printing. We have only begun to see the tip of the iceberg in how this technology will disrupt industry.
4 – Driverless Car – It’s not quite going to happen yet in 2016, but the strides in this space will still be impressive. There will be lots of hype but it will be a while before consumers can purchase or get a fully functional driverless car. The good news is that some of this technology is creeping in now in the form of driver assistance, with the aim of reducing accidents. The bad news is there is plenty more hype to go before a truly autonomous car hits the market for consumers to purchase at their leisure. The hype for a pilotless plane will be forthcoming.
5 – Augmented Reality/Virtual Reality (AR/VR) – VR got going in 2015 with affordable gear now available. What is missing is software that fully leverages these platforms, as opposed to ports of current popular games. I have seen some fun and cool stuff to demo but we are still in search of some games that will blow your mind. Call me a believer in the possibilities but in order for this to really explode we need to see some killer apps to avoid the current generation becoming the equivalent of 3D Television. Will it take haptic products to really make this go? AR still holds tremendous potential for business and gaming but in 2016 we will just get more hype.
6 – Age of Context – now has all of the pieces in place to fully be leveraged since it was first brought to the forefront some years ago. The question for 2016 is who will actually do it well? We have had mobile, social media, big data, sensors and location-based services for some time now. The big difference now is the ubiquity of all of these elements. In 2016 we should see someone finally overcome the issues of privacy to fully leverage this.
7 – Data Driven Design – Much like the Age of Context, 2016 marks the year that Data Driven Design benefits from all of the pieces finally coming together. Retail is a poster child for this as data now allows retailers to have a bidirectional relationship with their customers. This isn’t just about suggesting products to customers as Amazon has done for some time now. This is about changing the design of products, giving the customer a different experience, modifying support or creating something entirely new.
8 – Blockchain – is not just for Bitcoin anymore. Just look at the investments made by major financial institutions in this space. This technology is not only legitimate it is highly disruptive. Look for it to begin impacting not only banking, but healthcare, music, financial services, security and identity management just to name a few. It will be interesting to see if legitimizing Blockchain actually helps Bitcoin gain more traction as well.
9 – Smart Earphones – are coming. Think about what you could do with something that fits in the ear, provides more functionality than a FitBit, and allows you to take calls hands free while working to provide noise cancellation on a plane. This technology also has the ability to drastically impact the hearing aid market this year. Look for someone to launch these multifunction devices by late 2016.
10 – Apple – has greatly disappointed a number of fanboys over the past several years with limited releases and few things to get overly excited about. That is now being reflected in the stock chart, as the company is behind on several fronts. This year’s announcements were disappointing, as was the Apple Watch product launch. Even the laptop line is confusing – I still don’t know what they are doing with the Mac Air line in light of the new Mac Book. After dropping the ball on several fronts Apple is now extremely dependent on the iPhone. In 2016 I expect Apple to straighten out their confusing laptop line, deliver a second generation watch, launch iPhone 7 with major advancements over the 6, and finally start delivering on some of their home automation toolkits. Apple still builds the best and most reliable hardware but they simply have to be more innovative 2016 or risk losing the halo that surrounds many of their products. I am banking on some sort of surprise from these guys this year.
What do you see happening in 2016 that I might have missed?
